From TikTok to Social Selling: Five Social Media Predictions for 2020

According to Socialbakers, 2019 was characterized by the explosive growth of TikTok and the increasing popularity of influencer marketing, especially among marketers from the beauty, fashion, e-commerce and automotive sectors.

For 2020, the company predicts not only further growth for influencer marketing, but also a rapid rise in social commerce - thanks in part to the increased distribution of shopping-related content, experiments with VR-supported shopping experiences and the spread of bots in the area of customer service.

Socialbakers claims to have the largest social media dataset in the industry and works with more than 2500 social media marketing teams in 100 countries. This gives the company an unparalleled overview of what is happening in the social media landscape.

Socialbakers predicts the five most important trends for 2020:  

1. tikTok will continue its rapid rise

In October 2018, TikTok was the most downloaded photo and video app in the Apple Store worldwide and officially reached one billion downloads in 2019. "We expect TikTok to continue its rapid rise in 2020 thanks to its aggressive marketing campaigns and investments in geographic expansion," comments Socialbaker's CEO Yuval Ben-Itzhak.

TikTok is already advertiser #1 on Snapchat and #2 on YouTube according to SensoTower, an app marketing analytics company. TikTok has also used collaborations with celebrities and influencers to generate general interest and viral content.

To support growth and further geographic expansion, TikTok is expanding its offices in London and Mountain View (CA) and recruiting talent directly from Facebook as well as Snap, Apple and Amazon.com.  
But despite all the hype, TikTok is not without controversy. TikTok is using popular videos published on the platform as part of its ongoing external advertising campaign. The problem is that the creators of these videos have not been informed that their content will be used in the ads - and they are not compensated for the content either. Recently, the app has come under increased scrutiny from US lawmakers who fear Tiktok could pose a national security threat.

"In short, TikTok is the platform to watch in 2020," said Ben-Itzhak of Socialbakers. Mark Zuckerberg, founder and CEO of Facebook, has acknowledged TikTok's success and tried to compete with TikTok by launching Lasso in November 2018. Unfortunately for Facebook, Lasso struggled to attract a large number of users. By February 2019, the platform had only gained 70,000 users in the US. Yuval explains why Facebook has a far better chance of successfully attacking TikTok with Instagram Reels:

"The Lasso app was Facebook's first attempt to leverage the TikTok mechanic with short music video clips - whereas Lasso was a standalone app, Instagram Reels is integrated directly into Instagram's user interface. This makes it easier for Facebook advertisers and users to access this highly engaging content - without the barrier of having to download an additional app. Instagram Stories is the best example of how Facebook has in the past strongly attacked the competition - in this case Snpachat - with a new content format for its existing target group."

2. influencer marketing will - contrary to other opinions - continue to grow and not shrink

"Consumers are increasingly looking for reviews or ratings and credible voices when making purchasing decisions," said Ben-Itzhak. "This creates great opportunities for influencers and brands to reach audiences together and authentically."

Major consumer brands in the beauty, fashion, e-commerce and automotive sectors entered influencer marketing in 2019 and found that the business benefited significantly. Investment is expected to increase further in 2020, with influencer marketing set to become a 10 billion dollar industry by 2020.

The data from Socialbakers for the last year shows:

• Influencer sponsored ads grew by more than 150 %
• The number of influencers using the hashtag #ad) to mark an advertising collaboration has more than doubled
• Micro-influencers are becoming increasingly important and make up the majority of influencers today. Over 75 percent of influencers in North America are micro-influencers.

Renowned marketers are relying on digital, social media and influencer marketing like never before:

• Estee Lauder explained that 75% of its marketing budget is spent on digital marketing, particularly social media influencers, and that this investment is paying off.
• Boss markets its suit business with the hashtag #SuitChallenge and encourages influencers and athletes worldwide to take on the toughest challenges while being dressed from head to toe by Boss. The suit challenge was even mentioned in a recent financial results conference call.
• Burberry's social media successes on Instagram and WeChat were also recently discussed by its CEO in a conference call on the quarterly financial results.

3. the breakthrough of VR/AR will come

Virtual reality (VR) has long been associated with video games or Hollywood movies. "While tech-savvy marketers have experimented with VR in the past, most make the mistake of underestimating the potential of this technology and only seeing it as a flashy gimmick," says Ben-Itzhak.

"At Socialbakers, we know that VR represents a huge opportunity for marketers. The interactive technology can engage audiences, increase brand awareness and drive product discovery and sales," adds Ben-Itzhak. "Imagine your customers having the opportunity to discover products by browsing through virtual clothing racks and showrooms - a real-life experience for your customers that subsequently leads to a purchase. While it could take 5 to 10 years for this technology to become widespread, VR promises to be a powerful tool in retailers' arsenals."

Gap experimented with VR in the form of a virtual dressing room app. Gap shoppers were able to try on clothes virtually before buying. The app helped shoppers choose the right clothes for their body shape and size, reducing customer dissatisfaction and product returns, saving the company money and hassle.

Instagram, on the other hand, is experimenting with AR shopping by allowing users to try on products directly in the app using AR filters. Further experiments in the field of VR/AR are sure to follow in 2020.

4. social commerce will experience rapid growth in 2020

Data from Socialbakers shows that shopping content on social media - including shopping experiences with VR - is increasing rapidly. Platform providers are responding to this development with additional e-commerce functions.

With Instagram Shopping, Instagram offers an immersive platform for selected brands where users can discover and buy products. Facebook's app portfolio, consisting of WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger and Facebook Groups, now offers tools for community management and customer care. This means that all marketing activities within the sales funnel - from product discovery to post-purchase customer care - can be covered on social media. Facebook is even planning its own cryptocurrency, Libra. "2020 could be the year in which social commerce takes off and customers purchase products within a social media platform instead of accessing the app on a shopping site or being directed to the online store," explains Ben-Itzhak.

5. battle for advertising spend: Facebook vs. Instagram

Who will win the battle for advertising spend in 2020, the colossus Facebook or the current darling Instagram? (Answer: Facebook, as the company owns both platforms)

But what is the winning mix for marketers?

"As rudimentary as it may seem, we believe that all brands need to consider three important fundamentals when deciding where to allocate their budget - reach, engagement and demographics," said Ben-Itzhak. "From there, a brand can become more precise about which platform makes the most sense for a particular campaign or for an ongoing presence."

A recent data analysis by Socialbakers shows where ad spend is going and what to expect in the new year. "Our data shows that while marketers have increased their ad spend on Instagram, Facebook News Feed still accounts for 60 percent of all ad spend," explains Ben-Itzhak. "A distant second is the Instagram Feed with 20 percent, followed by Instagram Stories with 10 percent. The remaining 10 percent is split between Facebook Suggested Video and Facebook Instream Video. The bottom line is that around a third of the budget is spent on Instagram, the platform with the highest engagement. This raises the question: Are companies really getting the best possible results from their investment?" says Ben-Itzhak.

Ben-Itzhak from Socialbakers believes that there is a lot of potential in Facebook Suggested Videos, which have the second highest click-through rate (CTR) at almost 0.8 percent, but account for comparatively low ad spend.

"It is crucial for marketers to focus on optimizing advertising content and personalizing ads. Using a blanket strategy for the various different channels will not deliver the desired results," summarizes Ben-Itzhak.

Socialbakers CEO Yuval Ben-Itzhak.