Did Google really favor its own shopping integration in the EU?

After being fined billions by the European Commission for competition violations, Google is spinning off its shopping integration into a separate company to avoid further penalties. The new company is now to bid on equal terms with all competitors for advertising space in the search engine. Google has thus not accepted the ruling: The application for annulment is currently being reviewed, which may take years. So the question still stands: Did Google grant an illegal advantage to Google Shopping in the search results?

A new study from Searchmetrics reveals that the display of Google Shopping items in search results has increased by more than 300 percent on average over the past five years in the UK, Germany and France. At the same time, the average visibility of Google Shopping competitors, the major online comparison sites, has dropped by more than 50 percent on desktop computers and nearly 30 percent on mobile devices.

But while these average figures provide some support for the European Commission's position, the data does not support all of its claims against Google and requires more detailed analysis, as Marcus Tober, CTO and founder of Searchmetrics, explains: "While the European Commission's statements are quite clear and one-sided, our data shows that this situation probably needs to be looked at much more deeply. The performance in search results of Google Shopping and its competitors varies firstly over time, secondly from country to country, and thirdly for individual comparison websites - and this is not flatly consistent with the thesis that Google has consistently and purposefully targeted all comparison services across all regions."

Tober continues, "In addition, there are many factors that could impact the visibility of comparison sites. For example, we have found some evidence that, as Google has claimed in its defense, some of the loss for comparison sites may be related to a growing popularity of third parties, such as selling platforms like Amazon and eBay. Although, again, we see different results for each country here and it's probably not as simple as Google would have us believe."

Given the extent of the EU measures Google is facing and the potential further consequences for other sectors, the independent Searchmetrics study takes a critical look at the European Commission's key statements but also Google's statement and analyzes to what extent they are supported by Searchmetrics data. Due to its database of historical Google search results, the largest in the industry, the company is able to offer a unique expert view.

The five most important findings from the analysis:

1) There was a significant increase in Google Shopping ads in search results.

Between March 2013 and June 2017, the share of desktop search results for which at least one Google Shopping ad (also known as Google Product List ads) appears increased by a total of 327 percent in three countries. There were increases of 386 percent in Germany, 382 percent in the United Kingdom and 164 percent in France. This is based on an analysis of shopping ads for about 1 million search terms (keywords) per country, which Searchmetrics tracks weekly.

However, while the overall trend shows an increase in Google Shopping elements over the period, it is important to note that this is mainly due to a significant increase in Q1 2014, compared to which there has been a significant decrease most recently in Q2 2016. In between, the percentage of keywords with a Google Shopping element was relatively stable.

2) The desktop SEO visibility of the relevant Google competitors in the relevant industry has decreased overall over the same period.

An analysis of 10 major online comparison sites in each of the three countries that compete with Google Shopping shows that their combined Google SEO Visibility** (on desktops) dropped by 58 percent between March 2013 and June 2017. In France, the leading comparison sites suffered a 79 percent loss in visibility, 50 percent in Germany and 30 percent in the UK. However, there are exceptions to this average trend for individual competitors.

3) Comparison sites are more likely to be found on pages 4 or 5 of Google, where searchers rarely land.

Around half of all content on the major comparison sites in desktop search results in Germany and France can be found on pages 4 and 5 of Google, where searchers are much less likely to find it. In the UK, that figure is 42.3 percent. On page 1, on the other hand, only 6.6 percent are displayed in France, 11.1 percent in Germany and 16.9 percent in the UK.

In contrast, Google Shopping ads usually appear on the first page - either at the top or at the side of the organic search results. The result of a study showed that 92 percent of organic traffic results from page 1 results.

However, since January 2015, the percentage of keyword rankings on pages 4 and 5 for competitor websites has decreased, while rankings on pages 1, 2 and 3 have increased slightly proportionately.

4) Amazon and E-Bay may have contributed to the loss of visibility of the comparison sites.

One of Google's defenses against the EU Commission's accusations is that the declining performance of comparison sites in search results is due to the increasing success of platforms like Amazon and E-Bay, and not an unfair advantage for Google Shopping.

In France, the combined visibility of Amazon.fr and Ebay.fr in the search results increased, while the visibility of the comparison sites fell, which speaks for Google's defense.

In Germany, the combined visibility of Amazon.de and eBay.de remained more stable than that of the German comparison sites. But in 2013 and the first half of 2014, the two online marketplaces showed visibility gains, while that of the comparison sites fell.

In the UK, there was no discernible relationship between the growth in visibility of Amazon.co.uk and eBay.co.uk and that of comparison services.

5) Mobile trends: Google shopping embeds rose, while comparison services' aggregate visibility fell.

Searchmetrics analysis of mobile search results from February 2015 to June 2017 found that the number of keywords for which at least one Google Shopping item was displayed increased by 307 percent for the three countries combined.

Over the same period, the combined mobile visibility of Google Shopping competitors shows a decline of 28 percent. This is made up of visibility increases of 16 percent and 11 percent in France and the UK, and a visibility loss of 33 percent in Germany.

The full study "Serp Integration Study: Google Shopping, Investigating a Possible Impact of Google Shopping on the Organic Visibility of Shopping Comparison Pages" can be downloaded in English at here can be downloaded.